Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Export Performance Across Indonesian Provinces: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis
Abstract
Purpose – This study examines the effect of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) on export performance across Indonesian provinces.
Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a quantitative approach, drawing on panel data from 32 Indonesian provinces covering 2000–2025, and applies panel data regression analysis.
Findings – The results show that GEPU has a positive and significant effect on export performance. Trade openness, logistics performance, and the Human Development Index (HDI) also have positive, significant effects, while the exchange rate has a negative, significant effect. The findings also reveal heterogeneous provincial responses to global economic uncertainty.
Research limitations/implications – This study is limited to provincial-level data and selected macroeconomic variables. The results offer policy implications for strengthening export resilience through trade facilitation, improved logistics, human capital development, and export diversification.
Originality/value – This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the heterogeneous impact of global economic policy uncertainty on export performance across Indonesian provinces, offering a regional perspective that remains underexplored in previous studies.
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