Penerapan Konsep Present Value pada Valuasi Saham Menggunakan Metode Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Dan Dividend Discounted Model (DDM)

Abstract

This study aimed to apply the concept of present value in stock valuation using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Dividend Discounted Model (DDM) methods and to compare the accuracy of both methods using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). This research used a descriptive quantitative approach with secondary data obtained from annual financial reports, dividend data, and historical stock prices. The objects of this study were PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), two coal-based energy sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2019–2021 period. The data were analyzed by calculating the intrinsic value of each stock using the DCF and DDM methods. The valuation results were then compared with the closing price to determine whether the stocks were undervalued, overvalued, or fair valued. The results showed that, based on the DCF method, BYAN was categorized as undervalued, whereas ITMG was categorized as overvalued. Meanwhile, based on the DDM method, both BYAN and ITMG were categorized as undervalued. The RMSE test showed that the DDM method produced a lower error value than the DCF method, indicating that DDM was more accurate in estimating the fair value of BYAN and ITMG during the research period. These findings implied that investors should consider more than one valuation method and pay attention to dividend growth assumptions before making investment decisions.