Perbandingan Metode Sarima dan Dekomposisi untuk Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Padi Di Kabupaten Buleleng

Authors

  • Ruthesia Grace Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Indonesia
  • I Made Candiasa Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Indonesia
  • I Gusti Nyoman Yudi Hartawan Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31941/delta.v14i1.6847

Abstract

Rice production is a strategic sector for food security and the economy in Buleleng Regency. The production data in this region exhibits a clear seasonal pattern, with recurring fluctuations each year. Therefore, accurate forecasting that can effectively capture seasonality is essential to support planning and policymaking in order to improve the efficiency of agricultural resource management. This study compares two forecasting methods, namely the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method and the decomposition method, using monthly rice production data from January 2018 to December 2024. The best SARIMA model obtained is ARIMA(4,0,4)(0,1,0)12, while the best decomposition model is based on the additive decomposition approach. The comparison results show that the SARIMA method with the ARIMA(4,0,4)(0,1,0)12 model yields lower MAE and MAPE error values (MAPE SARIMA = 32.02% vs. Decomposition = 54.43%) and provides more stable predictions compared to the decomposition method. Therefore, it is recommended to apply the SARIMA method in forecasting rice production data in Buleleng Regency.

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Published

2026-06-11

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026): DELTA : JURNAL ILMIAH PENDIDIKAN MATEMATIKA

Section

Artikel

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