Does Earmarking Tobacco Excise Revenue Sharing Fund (DBHCHT) Strengthen Illegal Cigarette Enforcement in East Java? An Interrupted Time Series Evaluation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31941/pj.v25i1.7301Keywords:
DBH CHT, Earmarking, Enforcement, Illegal Cigarettes, Interrupted Time SeriesAbstract
The circulation of illegal cigarettes harms various sectors, including state revenue, industry, and health, so its eradication requires adequate funding support. This study assesses the impact of the DBH CHT earmarking policy since 2021 on strengthening the enforcement of illegal cigarettes in East Java, the largest recipient of the allocation in Indonesia. This research employs a quantitative approach, utilizing the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) method, and examines data on the frequency of illegal cigarette enforcement over 13 years (2012–2024). The analysis was conducted at fourteen Customs Offices in East Java Province, which coordinate with local governments receiving DBH CHT. The results showed that, prior to the 2021 intervention, the frequency of enforcement against illegal cigarettes increased significantly from year to year. Post-intervention, there was a significant spike in enforcement frequency at a rate of 10%, although it had not yet reached the significance of 5%. Meanwhile, no significant change in long-term trends was observed. The impact of the DBH CHT earmarking policy intervention in the enforcement of illegal cigarettes has not been able to strengthen the government's efforts, so it is necessary to improve the technical aspects of policy implementation, take advantage of learnings from the experience of managing "supervision funds", and adopt more diverse supervisory strategies.
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